Today (Feb 18), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: USDA in February supply and demand report maintained Brazilian and Argentine soybean production projections unchanged, of which Brazil was expected to harvest 133 mln tonnes of soybeans and local farmers were harvesting crops. And the agency’s projection of U.S. season-ending soybean stocks were in par with the market forecast. Therefore, U.S. soybean futures fell 14.25 cents on cautious market sentiment during the Chinese New Year holidays (Feb 11-17). Chinese investors are arbitraging in long oils positions and short meal positions, so meal futures fractionally fluctuate on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices range at 3,600-3,780 CNY/tonne, steadily fluctuating by 20-40 CNY from that before the holidays. The market is in thin trade amid strong festival atmosphere. (Tianjin 3800, up 20; Shandong 3750-3820; Rizhao 3750, down 30; Jiangsu 3760, up 20; Guangdong 3640, up 40; Dongguan 3640-3670; Guangxi 3690-3710.)

Imported soybean arrivals are forecast to be only 6.2 mln tonnes monthly in February and March, which may affect the soybean crush. And a weak U.S. dollar will probably be commonly seen as the U.S. introduces quantitative easing monetary policy. These continue to support meal prices. Short-term soybean meal prices may strengthen in fluctuation but the range is likely to be small. Buyers are suggested to buy dips for proper stocks and remain cautious in chasing after high prices.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed 14.25 cents lower at 1,383.75 cents, down from 1,398 cents on February 10^th. Rapeseed meal futures on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuate to go up today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,830-2,910 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a fluctuation of 10 CNY/tonne compared to before holidays, in tepid trade. Most traders have not come back to market with the enchanting smell of Spring Festival. And the monthly soybean arrivals during February and March could be less than 6.2 mln tonnes. Besides, oil plants have basically sold out February contract in advance. Furthermore, factories and dealers have strong intention to raise price as a majority of oil plants were shut down and take Spring Festival holidays. Plus, aquaculture will be gradually started from March. Therefore, the overall rapeseed meal market is predicted to stay strong with fluctuations.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep firm today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,100-10,600 CNY/tonne, unchanged from that before the holidays; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,100-11,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks are low at domestic ports, and Peruvian sellers keep offers firm, so domestic traders still tend to support prices. But domestic demand for fishmeal is small as aquaculture is off-season in winter, and there is not buyers now right after the new year holidays. In the near term, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 4,900 tonnes, Tianjin 790 tonnes, Shanghai 9,500 tonnes, Huangpu 37,750 tonnes, Fuzhou 13,600 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,500 tonnes and 4,100 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Feb/Mar shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are mostly not available in China today and fluctuate by 80-100 CNY/tonne is several regions. U.S. soybean futures have dropped 14.25 cents during the Lunar New Year holiday. Meal futures are range-bound today on Dalian Commodity Exchange, which is affected by profit taking from buying oils and selling meals. Market is quiet now with the enchanting smell of Spring Festival holidays, which curbs meals prices. And the purchases and sales of cottonseed meal is thin, leading to its nominal prices. However, the monthly soybean arrivals could only reach 6.2 mln tonnes in February and March, which may impact the operating rates among crushing mills. Besides, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market will fluctuate at a narrow range. The overall market of meal products is likely to fluctuate to stay strong due to less arrival of soybeans through February and March.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.45)