Today (Feb 20), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures rose on Friday on the overall strong demand and tightening US soybean supplies, and meal futures also rose 39 CNY to 3508 in Friday’s after-hour trade on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle up 20-30 CNY at 3,600-3,790 CNY/tonne, and the trade is thin on Saturday today. (Tianjin 3770-3780, Shandong 3725-3780, Jiangsu 3680-3730, Dongguan 3600-3630, and Guangxi 3720-3730.)

Imported soybean arrivals are forecast to be only 6.2 mln tonnes monthly in February and March, so that some mills may be in downtime for a lack of soybeans. Meanwhile, some millers have sold out February soybean meal contracts and are selling March contracts at a brisk pace. Hence, they have strong sentiment to support prices. Besides, a weak U.S. dollar will probably be commonly seen as the U.S. introduces quantitative easing monetary policy. However, domestic demand for soybean meal is tepid amid strong festival atmosphere, and domestic investors are going long further in oils positions due to strong gains in oils futures. These are curbing meal prices. Soybean meal prices may fluctuate frequently in the short term and remain strong overall. Buyers are suggested to buy dips for appropriate stocks and remain cautious in chasing after high prices.

Rapeseed meal: USDA expects that U.S. soybean supply will still stay at a historical low after entering into 2022, mainly due to brisk demand. U.S. soybean futures ended higher last night. Meal futures on China’s exchanges also went up in overnight trade. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,830-2,930 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, an increase of 40-70 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. So far, net crush margins for soybean futures have been negative. And the monthly soybean arrivals during February and March could be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower as a result of delay in Brazilian soybean harvest and shipment. Besides, oil plants have basically sold out February contract in advance, so factories and dealers have strong intention to raise price. Plus, aquaculture is inactive now and will not be gradually started until March. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is projected to stay strong with fluctuations on the whole.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep firm today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,100-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,100-11,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne. Although new cargoes are arriving at ports (Shanghai port in particular) recently, domestic fishmeal stocks are still low, and Peruvian sellers keep offers firm, so domestic traders still tend to support prices. But domestic demand for fishmeal is small as aquaculture is off-season in winter, and there is not buyers now right after the new year holidays. In the near term, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 5,900 tonnes, Tianjin 750 tonnes, Shanghai 15,000 tonnes, Huangpu 40,800 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,770 tonnes and 4,400 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Feb/Mar shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are mostly not available and partly stable in China today. The demand is sluggish now as it is still full of the smell of Spring Festival holidays. And investors shift to buying oils after seeing the strength on oils. These have curbed soybean meal price. Besides, the purchases and sales of cottonseed meal is thin, leading to a gloomy market. However, U.S. soybean futures ended higher in overnight trading. Spot soybean meal rises by 20-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Moreover, the monthly soybean arrivals could only reach 6.2 mln tonnes in February and March, which may lead crushing mills to suspend the operation due to shortages of soybean. Additionally, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market will stay firm and fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.46)