Today (Feb 23), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: US soybean futures rose on Monday, as weather remained dry in Argentina and southern Brazil while rains postponed soybean harvest in northern Brazil. As investors go long in strong oils futures, meal futures fluctuate to adjust in morning trade on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today, but quickly rally in afternoon session. Spot soybean meal prices settle at 3,650-3,780 CNY/tonne, fluctuating by 10-40 CNY and attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3740, Shandong 3710-3780, Jiangsu 3660-3700, Dongguan 3650-3660, and Guangxi 3740-3780.)  

Imported soybean arrivals are forecast to be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower monthly in February and March in China, as soybean harvests remain slow in Brazil. And some domestic processors have sold out February soybean meal contracts and are selling March contracts at a brisk pace; thus, they have strong sentiment to support meal prices. But the market has been in thin trade due to thin demand after the festival. And domestic soybean meal stocks have risen to 700,000 tonnes, up 55% that before the festival and up 101% from a year earlier. Besides, domestic investors are arbitraging in strong oils futures markets. These are weighing on meal prices. But soybean meal stocks usually set to decline from March as buyers come back to the market, and U.S. soybean futures expand gains on board today, so the cost side may bolster domestic soybean meal prices to stay strong in the short run. Buyers can buy dips to keep appropriate stocks.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Monday. Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures fluctuate slightly in morning session. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,810-2,910 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a fluctuation of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. But following a distinct rise on CBOT soybean futures, meals futures also sharply climb after noon. Cash prices of rapeseed meal will go up in the afternoon. So far, net crush margins for soybean futures have been negative. And the monthly soybean arrivals during February and March could be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower. Besides, many oil plants have basically sold out February soybean meal contract in advance and also make faster progress in March contract, so factories and dealers have strong intention to raise price. In this case, soybean meal price go strengthening, which is bullish for rapeseed meal prices. Although soybean meal and rapeseed meal stockpiles are significantly higher with aquaculture still being in an off season now, the overall rapeseed meal market will likely follow futures to stay strong, dominated by higher cost due to a surge on soybean.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-11,000 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,400 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,900 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports (especially Shanghai port) after the festival, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders start to cut down prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers are signing new-season contracts at a decent pace, which may bring some comfort to domestic traders and help limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with a slight adjustment in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,100 tonnes, Tianjin 730 tonnes, Shanghai 24,600 tonnes, Huangpu 41,800 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,050 tonnes and 4,060 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Mar/Apr shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a partial decline of 100 CNY/tonne in China today. U.S. soybean futures closed up on Monday. Meal futures move with fluctuations on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal fluctuates by 10-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Market demand has slackened after Spring Festival holidays, weighing on cottonseed meal market tentatively. But the monthly soybean arrivals could only reach 6.2 mln tonnes in February and March, which may lead crushing mills to suspend the operation due to shortages of soybean. This will help in underpinning soybean meal prices. Additionally, CBOT soybean futures and Dalian meal futures drastically climb up after noon. Moreover, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. It is predicted that cottonseed meal market will keep strengthening in the near term.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.45)