Today (Feb 26), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Thursday on a bearish export sales report and profit-taking, and meal futures decline widely on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 60-100 CNY at 3,630-3,740 CNY/tonne, in thin trade. (Tianjin 3700, Shandong 3660-3700, Jiangsu 3650-3720, Dongguan 3630-3650, and Guangxi 3730-3740.)  

Domestic producers sold huge quantities of pigs ahead of the Lunar New Year due to the festival demand and the pandemic, and now they are slow in making replenishment as hog and broiler prices keep declining after the festival. And aquaculture has also not get started yet. Hence, soybean meal stocks are increasing due to slack demand. These are weighing on meal prices. But Brazilian soybean harvest and shipment are far slower than in previous years, so China’s soybean imports are forecast to be only 95 vessels or 6.2 mln tonnes. Many domestic oil mills will suspend production for a lack of soybeans in March, especially in north and northeast China, so soybean meal stocks may hopefully decline from the high level. Meanwhile, some millers have also sold a large portion of March soybean meal contracts. Domestic millers have strong sentiment to support soybean meal prices, so spot prices see smaller declines than futures. Short-term soybean meal prices may follow Dalian meal to fluctuate repeated to adjust, and due to a weak U.S. dollar and uncertain weather in South America, mid-term trend is expected to fluctuate to strengthen. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures sharply fell on Thursday on indicated weak demand for export and profit taking from sell-off. Meal futures ease broadly on China’s exchanges but stay around the previous close. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,760-2,860 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decline of 110-120 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. The demand in market is still slacked as the Lunar New Year has just passed, leading to a subdued trade. In this case, soybean meal and rapeseed meal stockpiles are significantly higher, which drags down rapeseed meal price to fall. However, net crush margins for U.S. soybean futures have been negative currently. And the monthly soybean arrivals during February and March could be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower. Consequently, many oil plants could suspend the processing as soybeans are in short supply. Nevertheless, aquaculture will gradually activate in mid-to-late March. In the near term, rapeseed meal prices are poised to pick up after pullbacks. Buyers can make modest replenishment upon low and stable prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,800 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports (especially Shanghai port) after the festival, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders start to cut down prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers are signing new-season contracts at a decent pace, and global ocean shipment are also influenced by the pandemic, which are lending support to domestic traders and may limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with a slight adjustment in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,280 tonnes, Tianjin 700 tonnes, Shanghai 28,870 tonnes, Huangpu 41,530 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,230 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,140 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Mar/Apr shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable today. Soybean arrivals in March are forecast to be only 95 cargo ships or 6.2 mln tonnes. Many crushing mills especially located in North, East and Northeast China will suspend the processing due to shortages of soybeans, and then soybean meal stocks are poised to drop from high levels. In this case, oil plants have strong intention to raise price, bolstering meals prices. Besides, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. But U.S. soybean futures plunged on Thursday. And meal futures suffer a sharp fall on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is offered 60-100 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Additionally, market demand is still slacked as Spring Festival has just passed, which leads a tepid trade. It is predicted that cottonseed meal market will fluctuate narrowly in the near term but still maintain the high level on the whole.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.47)