Today (Mar 1), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell last Friday as Brazilian farmers were expected to harvest record soybean crops and to speed up the harvest in March and Chinese buyers slowed down U.S. soybean purchases recently. Meal futures are fractionally lower on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 10-30 CNY at 3,630-3,740 CNY/tonne, in thin trade. (Tianjin 3660, Shandong 3630-3680, Jiangsu 3630-3660, Dongguan 3610-3630, and Guangxi 3710-3730.)  

Domestic producers sold huge quantities of pigs ahead of the Lunar New Year due to the festival demand and the pandemic. Now the African swine fever is still a concern and hog and broiler prices keep declining after the festival, so farmers are slow in making replenishment. And aquaculture has also not get started yet. Hence, soybean meal stocks are increasing under thin trade after the festival, which is weighing down prices. But Brazilian soybean harvest and shipment are far slower than in previous years, so China’s soybean imports are forecast to be only 95 vessels or 6.2 mln tonnes. Many domestic oil mills will suspend production for a lack of soybeans in March and April, especially in north and northeast China, so soybean meal stocks may hopefully decline from the high level. Meanwhile, some millers have also sold a large portion of March soybean meal contracts. Domestic millers have strong sentiment to support soybean meal prices. Short-term soybean meal prices may follow Dalian meal to fluctuate to adjust, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Rapeseed meal: Brazilian soybean production is poised to hit an all-time high, and China has obviously slowed the purchase of U.S. soybean recently. CBOT soybean futures fell on Friday. Meal futures fluctuate to ease on China’s exchanges. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,780-2,940 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a fluctuation of 10-20 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. The demand in market is still slacked as the Lunar New Year has just passed, and aquaculture has yet to begin at the moment, leading to a subdued trade. Besides, investors take profit from buying oils and selling meals due to the strength on oils, which curbs meals prices. But rapeseed meal stockpiles have declined by 15% to 62,000 tonnes in coastal regions. Moreover, net crush margins for U.S. soybean futures have been negative currently. And the soybean arrivals in March are projected only 95 cargoes or 6.2 mln tonnes. Consequently, many oil plants could suspend the processing as soybeans are in short supply. Nevertheless, aquaculture will gradually activate at South China in mid-to-late March, offering support to meals prices. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices are predicted to fluctuate in the near term. Buyers can make modest replenishment upon low and stable prices.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a partial decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY from last Friday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY from last Friday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY from last Friday; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY from last Friday. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports currently, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders show weak sentiment to support prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers are signing new-season contracts at a decent pace, and global ocean shipment are also influenced by the pandemic, which are lending support to domestic traders and may limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with a slight adjustment in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,510 tonnes, Tianjin 670 tonnes, Shanghai 29,620 tonnes, Huangpu 40800 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,120 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,040 tonnes and 4,190 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Mar/Apr shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable but fluctuate by 70-100 CNY/tonne in several regions today. Soybean arrivals in March are forecast to be only 95 cargo ships or 6.2 mln tonnes. Many crushing mills will suspend the processing during March and April due to shortages of soybeans, and then soybean meal stocks are poised to drop from high levels. In this case, oil plants have strong intention to raise price, bolstering meals prices. Besides, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. But U.S. soybean futures closed lower last Friday on Brazilian soybean bumper crop and accelerated harvest. And meal futures also edge down on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is offered 10-30 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Additionally, market demand is still slacked as Spring Festival has just passed, which leads a tepid trade. It is predicted that cottonseed meal market will fluctuate narrowly in the near term but still maintain the high level on the whole.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.48)