Today (Mar 2), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Monday on a bumper soybean crop prospect in Brazil, and meal futures open low and expand losses on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 40-60 CNY at 3,560-3,660 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin 3580, Shandong 3530-3550, Jiangsu 3560-3600, Dongguan 3560-3600, and Guangxi 3640-3660.)  

Chinese producers rushed to sell off finished pigs in some regions as the African swine fever is reported occasionally around the Lunar New Year Festival, and they are slow in resuming stocks due to a weak price trend after the festival, so that hog stocks declined for two consecutive months in January and February. And aquaculture has also not get started yet. Hence, soybean meal stocks have increased to 740,000 tonnes under thin trade after the festival, which is weighing down prices. However, Brazilian soybean harvest and shipment are far slower than in previous years, so China’s soybean imports are forecast to be only 95 vessels or 6.2 mln tonnes. Many domestic oil mills will suspend production for a lack of soybeans in March and April, especially in north and northeast China, so soybean meal stocks may hopefully decline from the high level. Meanwhile, some millers have also sold a large portion of March soybean meal contracts and choose to suspend offers to support prices. Hence, meal prices still have some bullish support. As U.S. soybean futures adjust at high levels, short-term soybean meal prices may follow Dalian meal to fluctuate to adjust, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Monday on anticipated Brazilian soybean bumper harvest. Meal futures edge down after low opens on China’s exchanges. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,740-2,850 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decrease of 40-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Farmers are not active in replenishing stocks as hog and broiler prices have consecutively declined after the Lunar New Year, and aquaculture has yet to begin at the moment, leading to a subdued trade. This has curbed meals prices. But net crush margins for U.S. soybean futures have been negative currently. And the soybean arrivals in March are projected only 95 cargoes or 6.2 mln tonnes. Consequently, many oil plants could suspend the processing as soybeans are in short supply. Nevertheless, aquaculture will gradually activate at South China in mid-to-late March, offering support to meals prices. Therefore, rapeseed meal prices are predicted to follow futures to fluctuate in the near term. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make modest replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports currently, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders show weak sentiment to support prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers have pre-sold 220,00 tonnes of new-season fishmeal, and global ocean shipment are also influenced by the pandemic, which are lending support to domestic traders and may limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to go weakening in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,830 tonnes, Tianjin 650 tonnes, Shanghai 30,670 tonnes, Huangpu 41,200 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,230 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,020 tonnes and 4,300 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Mar/Apr shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable but drop by 20-50 CNY/tonne in several regions today. U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Monday as Brazilian soybeans are expected to get a bumper harvest. Meal futures also retreat after low opens and extend losses on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is offered 40-90 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Hog stocks have consecutively declined for the month of January and February due to the resurgence of African swine fever around the Spring Festival, so farmers are not active in replenishing stocks. Also, aquaculture has not begun yet for the moment. Soybean meal stockpiles in coastal crushing mills have increased to 740,000 tonnes. These have weighed on meals prices. Besides, market demand is still slacked as Spring Festival has just passed, which leads a tepid trade. However, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. It is predicted that cottonseed meal market will fluctuate in the near term but still maintain the high level on the whole.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.46)