China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 9, 2021)

2021-03-08 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

Edible palm oil stocks in China drastically descend this week. In the week ending Mar 5, edible palm oil stocks in China total 599,000 tonnes at nationwide ports, down 11.08% from 673,700 tonnes last week; down 20,300 tonnes or 3.3% from 619,300 tonnes in the previous month; down 299,200 tonnes or 33.3% from 898,200 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 790,500 tonnes in 2019, 666,300 tonnes in 2018 and 587,200 tonnes in 2017. On an average from 2016-2020, palm oil stocks reached 708,200 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 115,200 tonnes, a growth of 3,100 tonnes or 2.76% versus 112,100 tonnes in the previous week.

The price spread of palm oil with soybean oil continues expanding this week, setting at 1,933 CNY/tonne as of this Friday, an increase of 378 CNY/tonne from 1,555 CNY/tonne a week earlier. The trading volume totals 54,450 tonnes (spot 19,850 tonnes and forward basis 34,600 tonnes) this week, a modest decrease from the previous week. And palm oil imports in March have dropped. Accordingly, these have led dometic palm oil stocks to dwindle. In the near term, edible palm oil stockpiles will likely continue falling.

Region /Port	Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 tonne）					Industrial Palm Oil Stocks
Region /Port	W9	W8	Change	M-O-M	Y-O-Y	W9	W8	Change
Tianjin Port	8.9	9.15	-0.25	-2.84%	-13.76%	2.4	2.3	0.1
Hebei	1.85	1.9	-0.05	150.00%	105.56%	0.05	0.1	-0.05
Shandong Port	2.45	3.15	-0.7	-43.68%	172.22%	1.11	1.25	-0.14
East China	17.03	19.03	-2	-13.68%	-48.94%	4.75	4.3	0.45
Guangdong	22.05	25.37	-3.32	3.13%	-34.41%	2.89	2.88	0.01
Guangxi	4.62	5.37	-0.75	29.41%	81.17%	0.32	0.38	-0.06
Fujian	3	3.4	-0.4	-15.96%	-36.84%	0	0	0
Total：	59.9	67.37	-7.47	-3.33%	-33.30%	11.52	11.21	0.31

II. Goods Arrivals

China’s palm oil imports in March are expected to be 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes), unchanged from the estimate in the previous week. And China is projected to bring in 550,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in April.

III. Margins and Shipments

Date	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/tonne）	Duty Paid (CNY/tonne)	DCE (CNY/tonne)	Import Margin
2/18/2021	Mar, 2021	1020	7882	7134	-748
2/18/2021	Apr, 2021	960	7423	7134	-289
2/19/2021	Apr, 2021	1010	7827	7216	-611
	May, 2021	955	7405	7216	-189
	Jul-Sep, 2021	867.5	6734	6622	-112
2/22/2021	Apr, 2021	1025	7934	7278	-656
	May, 2021	970	7513	7278	-235
	Jul-Sep, 2021	882.5	6842	6690	-152
	Oct-Dec, 2021	845	6555	6500	-55
2/23/2021	Apr, 2021	1020	7892	7360	-532
	May, 2021	965	7471	7360	-111
	Jun, 2021	930	7203	6766	-437
	Jul, 2021	905	7011	6766	-245
	Aug, 2021	887.5	6877	6766	-111
	Sep, 2021	870	6743	6766	23
2/24/2021	Apr, 2021	1037.5	8030	7482	-548
	May, 2021	995	7704	7482	-222
	Jun, 2021	955	7398	6854	-544
	Jul, 2021	925	7168	6854	-314
	Aug, 2021	905	7015	6854	-161
	Sep, 2021	885	6861	6854	-7
2/25/2021	Apr, 2021	1040	8035	7606	-429
	May, 2021	1002.5	7748	7606	-142
	Jun, 2021	965	7461	6900	-561
	Jul, 2021	935	7232	6900	-332
	Aug, 2021	915	7079	6900	-179
	Sep, 2021	895	6926	6900	-26
2/26/2021	Apr, 2021	1040	8059	7534	-525
	May, 2021	995	7713	7534	-179
	Jun, 2021	955	7406	6826	-580
	Jul, 2021	925	7176	6826	-350
	Aug, 2021	902	7000	6826	-174
	Sep, 2021	885	6869	6826	-43

Date	Cargoes	Sailing Schedule	CNF （USD/tonne）	Duty Paid (CNY/tonne)	Qty. （0'000 tonne）
3/2/2021	1	Jun	923	7159	1.2
3/2/2021	1	Jun	920	7136	1.2
3/2/2021	1	Jun	922	7151	1.2
3/2/2021	1	Jun	920	7136	1.2
3/2/2021	1	Mar	1020	7903	1.2
3/2/2021	1	Apr	1005	7788	1.2
3/2/2021	1	may	955	7404	1.2
3/2/2021	1	jul	920	7136	1.2

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