Today (Mar 9), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued rising on Monday, as Brazilian soybeans were only 35% harvested due to rainy weather, down from 49% last year and the slowest pace in a decade and as dry and hot weather was pressuring soybean crop development in Argentina. But meal futures open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today on strong oils futures. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 20-60 CNY at 3,470-3,610 CNY/tonne, attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3510, Shandong 3500-3530, Jiangsu 3500-3550, Dongguan 3470-3520, and Guangxi 3600-3610.) 

China’s hog stocks have been declining for two consecutive months as the African swine fever is edging up and hog prices keep weakening. In addition, aquaculture has also not get started. Soybean meal has thus been in thin trade after the festival and stocks have risen to 850,000 tonnes. Some mills are choked up with swelling meal inventory and start to quicken up the delivery. Besides, oils prices are strong now. These are all bearish to meal prices. But some domestic processors will suspend production periodically in March and April due to small soybean imports, and some millers have also sold a large portion of March soybean meal contracts; hence, they have strong sentiment to prop up prices. Soybean meal prices will fluctuate in the short term, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Monday. But meal futures edge down after opening low on China’s exchanges today as investors take profit from selling meals and buying oils due to the strength on oils. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,780-2,890 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a descent of 30-40 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Hog prices go weakly amid the resurgence of African swine fever, raising farmer’s reluctance in replenishing hog stocks. And aquaculture has not begun yet. Accordingly, the market demand is seasonally sluggish now, leading to a subdued trade in meal products. In this case, soyoil mills are urging the deliveries as soybean meal stocks keep increasing, which weighs on rapeseed meal price. However, net crush margins for imported soybean futures also have been negative currently. And soybean arrivals in March are forecast to be only 95 cargoes or 6.2 mln tonnes. Consequently, many oil plants could suspend the processing during March and April due to the shortfall in soybean supplies, buoying rapeseed meal market. Plus, aquaculture in South China will gradually activate in mid-to-late March. It is expected that the downside for rapeseed meal price is limited in the near term and the market will stay strong on the whole. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,300-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,800-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,300-11,600 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports currently, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present. Meanwhile, presales of new-season fishmeal have slowed down the pace in Peru, so that local manufacturers have cut down prices. Domestic port traders have weakened down prices, so fishmeal market is predicted to steady with a slight decline in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 8,700 tonnes, Tianjin 560 tonnes, Shanghai 37,690 tonnes, Huangpu 40,950 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,090 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,080 tonnes and 4,140 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted lower by 20 USD at 1,440 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,660 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China partly stay stable and locally fluctuate by 50-100 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures further rose on Monday. But meal futures retreat after low opens on Dalian Commodity Exchange today as investors take profit from selling meals and buying oils amid the strength on oils. Spot soybean meal is offered 20-60 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Hog prices keep moving down due to the resurgence of African swine fever, and hog stocks have consecutively declined for two months. Also, aquaculture has not begun yet for the moment. In this case, soybean meal inventories have uninterruptedly increased to 850,000 tonnes and even faced overhang in some regions. These are negative for meals prices. Besides, cottonseed meal trade is tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which curbs its market tentatively. Moreover, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is predicted to potentially fluctuate in a short term but still stay strong in later period.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.53)