Today (Mar 11), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Wednesday on profit-booking as the USDA March supply and demand report failed to offer fresh bullish news and Brazilian soybean exports might hit a record high in March and also for a lack of fresh news of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Meal futures continue sharp declines on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today on arbitrage of long oils and short meal positions. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 50-180 CNY at 3,230-3,330 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3330, Shandong 3270-3300, Jiangsu 3280-3320, Dongguan 3230-3300, and Guangxi 3320-3340.) 

Hog prices keep weakening in China with the occurrence of the African swine fever in certain regions, and hog stocks have been declining as producers are slow in replenishing. In addition, aquaculture has also not get started. Soybean meal has thus been in thin trade and stocks have risen to 850,000 tonnes in coastal regions, so that some mills are choked up with swelling meal inventory, especially in south China. These are weighing down soybean meal prices. Although some processors will face a suspension in soybean crush for a lack of beans periodically, it will take time for soybean meal supply to get tight. Moreover, China’s soybean imports are expected to be huge from May to July. China’s soybean meal prices will fluctuate to adjust in the short term amid sharp declines in U.S. soybean and Dalian meal futures, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures and China’s meals futures sharply fall. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,600-2,700 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a descent of 130 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Hog prices persistently go weakly due to a resurgence of African swine fever in some regions, and farmers are not active in replenishing hog stocks. And aquaculture has yet to begin at the moment. These have led to a subdued trade in meal products. Market demand is seasonally sluggish now, leading to a subdued trade in meal products. Soybean meal inventories have increased by 14% to 850,000 tonnes and even faced overhang in some regions. Accordingly, meals prices are depressed by these factors above. It takes time for soybean meal to be in tight supply, although many crushing mills are idled by a shortfall in soybeans. Market participants are cautious now against the backdrop of steep declines in U.S. soybean and volatile financial market. It is projected that short-term rapeseed meal prices still follow futures to fluctuate. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,800-10,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,800-11,000 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,300-11,500 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports currently, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that port traders have weakened down prices. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to decline slightly in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 9,230 tonnes, Tianjin 570 tonnes, Shanghai 39,760 tonnes, Huangpu 40,960 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,420 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,040 tonnes and 4,070 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,440 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,660 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a descent of 20-100 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures closed much lower on Wednesday. Meal futures also sharply fall on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is offered 50-180 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Hog prices keep moving down due to a resurgence of African swine fever in some regions, and hog stocks have consecutively declined for two months. Also, aquaculture has not begun yet for the moment. In this case, soybean meal inventories have uninterruptedly increased to 850,000 tonnes and even faced overhang in some regions. These are negative for meals prices. Besides, cottonseed meal trade is tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which curbs its market tentatively. Moreover, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation and U.S. soybeans stay high, potentially bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price may fluctuate to fall following soybean meal.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.50)