Today (Mar 31), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its annual U.S. planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports on March 31, and the market was expecting U.S. growers to increase their soybean intentions this year. Moreover, Brazilian producers were quickening their pace in soybean harvests and the export demand for U.S. soybeans was cooling seasonally, in addition that U.S. dollar rose to an over four-month high. Hence, U.S. soybean futures plunged on Tuesday. Meal futures open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 10-40 CNY to 3,190-3,310 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3310, Shandong 3210-3260, Jiangsu 3190-3250, Dongguan 3220-3250, and Guangxi 3240-3270.) 

China’s soybean arrivals at ports will be huge in the second quarter, as Brazilian soybean harvests are underway and exports are climbing. And domestic hog producers are cautious in replenishment due to the African swine fever and a downtrend in hog price, and aquaculture sector has not been at full swing. Besides, feed manufacturers have adjusted their formula due to excessively high soybean meal and corn prices, and apply wheat and paddy rice to replace corn and reduce soybean meal use. Hence, soybean meal market has been in tepid trade, which is negative to the price. But net crush margins for imported soybeans are at heavy loss on Dalian, and millers have signed a large quantity of forward soybean meal contracts, so they are still supporting meal price. Overall, soybean meal prices are predicted to follow futures to fluctuate and retreat, and buyers can wait for low and stable price to make replenishment in small batch.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures sharply fell on Tuesday due to technical sell-off before unveiling USDA report. Rapeseed meal futures also edge down after opening low today on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,660-2,750 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decrease of 30-40 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Brazil soybean harvest is in good shape, which will lead its export to climb up. In this case, soybean arrivals at China are likely to reach 10 mln tonnes each month in May-July. Besides, farmers are reluctant to replenish hog stocks amid a resurgence of African swine fever in some regions, and aquaculture has not been in full swing for the moment, which has led to a subdued trade in meal products. However, crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on Dalian Commodity Exchange, affecting mill’s positivity in further purchasing rapeseed cargoes. In addition, many crushing mills are idled by a shortfall in soybeans in March-April, which limit declines of rapeseed meal. It is projected that short-term rapeseed meal market may adjust with fluctuations. Buyers can wait for the moment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to 140,000 tonnes.  And the situation of fish resources in Peru remains to be confirmed. Hence, traders in northern China are under pressure and the market is in thin trade. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases ahead of the Qingming Festival. Traders are thus unwilling to sell at low prices with brisker shipments at southern ports. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 13,510 tonnes, Tianjin 1,480 tonnes, Shanghai 49,920 tonnes, Huangpu 57,960 tonnes, Fuzhou 17,900 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,140 tonnes and 4,185 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,630 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China partly fluctuate by 20-50 CNY/tonne today. With weather warming up across the country, the demand from aquaculture is poised to become better. Crush margins for imported soybean futures on Dalian exchange have been negative, which bolsters meals prices. And most of cottonseed oil plants are idled at present, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. But CBOT soybean futures slumped on Tuesday. Dalian meals futures also retreat after opening low today. Spot soybean meal is offered 10-40 CNY/tonne lower at coastal regions. Besides, Farmers are cautious in replenishing hog stocks on account of declining hog prices affected by the resurgence of African swine fever in some regions of China. Also, aquaculture has not been in full swing now. In this case, soybean meal trading is light, weighing on meals prices. Likewise, cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which curbs its market tentatively. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will likely still move with fluctuations.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.57)