Today (Apr 6), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S soybean futures rose on Monday, and meal futures fluctuate to adjust on the arbitrage of long oils ans short meals. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-30 CNY to 3,270-3,400 CNY/tonne, and the market is expected to be in tepid trade with some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3370-3400, Shandong 3280-3300, Jiangsu 3270-3340, Dongguan 3300-3330, and Guangxi 3330.) 

Crush margins for imported soybeans on Dalian are at loss, so China’s Jun-Aug soybean imports may go lower than the forecast. The nationwide operation rates in mills are at low levels, while millers have sold out a lot of April soybean meal. Besides, the demand in aquaculture sector may start improving under warmer weather. Hence, domestic millers have strong sentiment to support prices, which is positive to meal market. However, China’s soybean arrivals still can not be underestimated in the second quarter as Brazilian soybean sales are brisk from April. And due to a downtrend n hog price, domestic producers are slow in replenishing stocks. In addition, feed manufacturers have adjusted their formula due to excessively high corn prices and applied wheat and paddy rice to replace corn, so high-protein wheat will also reduce soybean meal use. Soybean meal market thus remains in tepid trade and sees a rise in stocks, and millers are rushing to quicken up the delivery. Meanwhile, strong performance in the oils market is also bearish to meal prices. Overall, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate in the short term, and it is suggested to keep light stockpiles.

Rapeseed meal: CBOT soybean futures ended higher on Monday as market worries U.S. soybean supply due to strong export demand and potential lower-than-anticipated planting acreage. But oils futures perform strongly, triggering profit-taking. Rapeseed meal futures edge down on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,790-2,880 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a fluctuation of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

Farmers are reluctant to replenish hog stocks amid a resurgence of African swine fever in some regions, and aquaculture has not been in full swing now, which has led to a subdued trade in meal products. Rapeseed meal stocks have advanced by 3.2% to 74,300 tonnes as of late last week, which is bearish on meals prices. But crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchanges, affecting crushers’ further purchases of rapeseed cargoes. Moreover, there will be a period of downtime for many oil plants during April, which bolsters rapeseed meal market. It is projected that short-term rapeseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 160,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. Meanwhile, Peruvian production ministry may delay the announcement of new fishing quota and catch starting time until late April, as the country will have the president election on April 11, which will lead to changes in Cabinet. Therefore, domestic traders are unwilling to sell at low prices. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 15,720 tonnes, Tianjin 1,600 tonnes, Shanghai 52,995 tonnes, Huangpu 62,530 tonnes, Fuzhou 18,590 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,120 tonnes and 4,495 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are mixed in China today. U.S. soybean futures rose on Monday on profit-taking. Meals futures move sideways with fluctuations on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Spot soybean meal is offered 10-30 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Most of cottonseed oil plants are idled at present. And with weather warming up across the country, the demand from aquaculture will be gradually recovering. In this case, oil mills have strong intention to prop up price, which supports meals prices tentatively. But farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks due to a resurgence of African swine fever in China, and aquaculture has not been in full swing yet. Besides, cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which is bearish on its price. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will likely still move with fluctuations.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.55)