I. March soybean crush in China

Soybean crush distinctly picked up in March as crushing mills successively resumed the operation after taking the Spring Festival holiday. China’s soybean crush totaled 6,828,790 tonnes in March (meal 5,394,744 tonnes and oil 1,297,470 tonnes), an increase of 2,146,790 tonnes or 45.85% from 4,682,000 tonnes in February and a growth of 3.81% from 6,578,300 tonnes in March 2020, according to final detailed investigation and verification by Cofeed.

Soybean crush nationwide totaled 45,679,070 tonnes in the crushing year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), up 4,944,370 tonnes by 12.13% from 40,734,700 tonnes in 2019/20. In the calendar year of 2021 (from Jan 1st, 2021), national soybean crush totaled 20,325,310 tonnes, up 1,509,310 tonnes by 8.02% from 18,816,000 tonnes in 2020.

Details for monthly soybean crush by region are shown as follows: 

II. Soybean imports in China

China imported 5,561,900 tonnes of soybean in February 2021, a decrease of 2,283,000 tonnes or 29.10% from 7,844,900 tonnes in January and a descent of 113,500 tonnes or 2.00% from 5,675,400 tonnes in February 2020, data by China’s Customs showed. In January-February 2021, soybean imports totaled 13,406,800 tonnes in China, a decline of 106,100 tonnes or 0.79% from 13,512,900 tonnes in the same period last year.

China brought in 33,500 tonnes of soybeans from Brazil in February, a sharp fall of 964,700 tonnes or 96.64% from 998,200 tonnes in the previous month, and 2,125,000 tonnes or 98.45% from 2,158,500 tonnes a year earlier. China’s soybean imports from Brazil totaled 1,031,700 tonnes in January-February, down 4,107,600 tonnes or 79.93% from 5,139,300 tonnes in the same period last year.

China imported 5,285,600 tonnes of U.S. soybeans in February, down 1,381,600 tonnes or 20.72% versus 6,667,200 tonnes in January but up 2,723,100 tonnes or 106.27% versus 2,562,500 tonnes in February 2020. China’s soybean imports from the U.S. totaled 11,952,800 tonnes in January-February, up 5,851,600 tonnes or 95.91% from 6,101,200 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.

Soybean arrivals at domestic ports are forecast to be 117 cargoes totaling 7.597 mln tonnes in April 2021, according to the preliminary survey by Cofeed. And the estimate for soybean arrivals in May remains at 10.20 mln tonnes. Chinese soyoil mills slow their pace in purchasing due to poor crush margins for imported soybean futures on Dalian exchange, which will impact soybean imports in follow-up months. In this case, soybean arrivals are projected to be 9.20 mln tonnes in June, 8.50 mln tonnes in July, 7.90 mln tonnes in August. Statistics will be revised every week on account of variable and unstable buying and shipment heading to China.

III. Carryover soybean stocks in China

China’s soybean stockpiles in March went down due to reduced soybean arrivals this month. As of late March, domestic imported soybean stocks were totalling 4,721,700 tonnes, down 1,293,600 tonnes or 21.51% compared to 6,015,300 tonnes in February yet up 33.11% from 3,547,100 tonne in the previous year.

IV. March Soybean Crush Margins in China