Today (Apr 7), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S soybean futures continued gains on Tuesday as lower-than-expected plantings might lead to tighter supplies of U.S. soybeans and early soybean harvests in portions of Argentina would be delayed by heavy rains. But meal futures fluctuate to adjust on the arbitrage of long oils ans short meals. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-30 CNY to 3,270-3,400 CNY/tonne, and the trade is expected to be not as good as yesterday, with some purchases on low-level basis. (Tianjin 3380-3400, Shandong 3280-3310, Jiangsu 3270-3300, Dongguan 3300-3340, and Guangxi 3320-3330.) 

China’s soybean arrivals may reach 27 mln tonnes from April to June. And domestic producers are cautious in replenishing as hog prices keep declining on concerns over the African swine fever. Besides, feed manufacturers have adjusted their formula due to excessively high corn prices and applied wheat and paddy rice to replace corn, so high-protein wheat will also reduce soybean meal use. Soybean meal stocks rose 4.2% to 770,000 tonnes in coastal China, and some millers are working to quicken up the delivery, especially in southern China. Meanwhile, strong performance in the oils market is also bearish to meal prices. However, nationwide operation rates remain low in recent two weeks as crush margins for imported soybeans are at loss on Dalian, and millers have sold out a lot of April soybean meal. Besides, domestic farmers may increase fish seedlings on a recent rise in fish prices, so the demand in aquaculture sector will be improving. Soybean meal market finally traded strongly yesterday, and millers have strong sentiment to support prices, which are positive to meal market. Overall, soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate in the short term.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures settled higher on Tuesday. But oils futures perform strongly, triggering profit-taking. Rapeseed meal futures retreat after opening low on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,760-2,850 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decline of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

Brazilian soybean will go marketing after April, so soybean arrivals at Chinese ports in the second quarter cannot be underestimated. Moreover, farmers are reluctant to replenish hog stocks as hog prices keep declining amid a resurgence of African swine fever. As of late last week, soybean meal and rapeseed meal stocks have increased again, which is bearish on meals prices. But crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchanges, affecting crushers’ further buying. In this case, quantities of soybean and rapeseed purchased in June-August are likely to lower than anticipated. Besides, there will be a period of downtime for many oil plants during April, which bolsters rapeseed meal market. It is projected that short-term rapeseed meal market may fluctuate at a narrow range.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 160,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. Meanwhile, Peruvian production ministry may delay the announcement of new fishing quota and catch starting time until late April, as the country will have the president election on April 11, which will lead to changes in Cabinet. Therefore, domestic traders are unwilling to sell at low prices. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 15,910 tonnes, Tianjin 1,670 tonnes, Shanghai 53,765 tonnes, Huangpu 63,660 tonnes, Fuzhou 18,700 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,100 tonnes and 4,295 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China mainly stay stable with a partial decrease of 50 CNY/tonne today. Farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks due to declining hog prices affected by a resurgence of African swine fever in China, and aquaculture has not been in full swing yet. Besides, cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which is bearish on its price. But U.S. soybean futures further rose on Tuesday on profit-taking. Meals futures move sideways with fluctuations on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Spot soybean meal fluctuates by 10-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. For the moment, most of cottonseed oil plants are idled. In this case, oil mills have strong intention to prop up price, which supports meals prices tentatively. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will still move with fluctuations.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.54)