Today (Apr 8), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S soybean futures fell on Wednesday on profit-taking ahead of a monthly report. Meal futures stay below the previous close albeit a rise on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-30 CNY to 3,290-3,420 CNY/tonne, in less trade. (Tianjin 3390-3420, Shandong 3310-3320, Jiangsu 3290-3320, Dongguan 3310-3350, and Guangxi 3350.) 

China’s soybean arrivals may reach 27 mln tonnes from April to June. And domestic producers are cautious in replenishing as hog prices keep declining on concerns over the African swine fever. Besides, feed manufacturers have adjusted their formula due to excessively high soybean meal and corn prices and applied wheat and paddy rice to replace corn, so high-protein wheat will also reduce soybean meal use. Hence, soybean meal stocks rose 4.2% to 770,000 tonnes in coastal China. These are bearish to meal prices. But nationwide operation rates remain low in recent two weeks as crush margins for imported soybeans are at loss on Dalian. And soybean meal market has been in strong trade for two days, and and millers have sold out a lot of April soybean meal, so that they have started to limit orders and delivery. In addition, domestic farmers may increase fish seedlings on a recent rise in fish prices, so the demand in aquaculture sector will be improving. Domestic millers have strong sentiment to support prices, which is positive to meal market. Overall, soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate to keep it strength in the short term, and participants can wait for fresh cues from the USDA’s report.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed down on slower export pace and Brazilian soybean bumper harvest. Rapeseed meal futures retreat on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in the morning. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,760-2,850 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a partial decline of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could amount to 27 mln tonnes. Besides, farmers are reluctant to replenish hog stocks as hog prices keep declining amid a resurgence of African swine fever. At the moment, soybean meal and rapeseed meal stocks pick up again, so oil plants urge the deliveries. These are bearish on meals prices. However, crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchanges, affecting crushers’ further buying. Additionally, farmers will likely feed more fingerlings due to a rise in fish price, thereby the demand from aquaculture will potentially gradually become better. Thus, rapeseed meal market is supported. It is projected that short-term rapeseed meal price may fluctuate at a narrow range.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 160,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. Meanwhile, Peruvian production ministry may delay the announcement of new fishing quota and catch starting time until late April, as the country will have the president election on April 11, which will lead to changes in Cabinet. Therefore, domestic traders are unwilling to sell at low prices. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 16,530 tonnes, Tianjin 1,740 tonnes, Shanghai 54,665 tonnes, Huangpu 65,080 tonnes, Fuzhou 18,920 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,180 tonnes and 4,405 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China mainly stay stable with a partial increase of 50-100 CNY/tonne today. Farmers will feed more fingerlings after seeing a rise in aquatic products, so the demand from aquaculture is likely to gradually recover. Thus, oil mills have strong intention to prop up prices, boosting cottonseed meal price. But U.S. soybean futures further fell on Wednesday on profit-taking ahead of the USDA monthly report. Meals futures stay below the previous close on Dalian Commodity Exchange despite some rises today. Spot soybean meal fluctuates by 10-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. However, farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks due to declining hog prices affected by a resurgence of African swine fever in China. Besides, cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which is bearish on its price. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will likely fluctuate at the high level.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.55)