Today (Apr 12), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S soybean futures fell last Friday on a bearish monthly report by the USDA, and meal futures also open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 10-20 CNY to 3,280-3,400 CNY/tonne, in weaker trade. (Tianjin 3390-3400, Shandong 3310-3330, Jiangsu 3280-3350, Guangdong 3290-3330, and Guangxi 3360.)

China’s soybean arrivals are expected to reach 27 mln tonnes in April-June, as Brazilian producers are marketing soybeans at a brisker pace. And domestic hog farmers are slow in replenishment due to the African swine fever and a continued decline in hog price. However, crush margins for imported soybeans suffer sustained loss on Dalian. Soybean crush fell further to a low level of 1.35 mln tonnes last week, while soybean meal market was in better trade, so soybean meal stocks also started to reduce. In addition, domestic farmers may increase fish seedlings on a recent rise in fish price and under warming weather, so the demand in aquaculture sector will likely be improving. Millers now have strong sentiment to support soybean meal prices. And soybean oil prices have also dropped from the high level, which is also supporting meal price. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to fluctuate, and buyer can stay sidelines for the moment.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Friday on bearish supply and demand data by USDA. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate to go down on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,760-2,830 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decline of 10-20 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.

Farmers are reluctant to replenish pig herd amid the African swine fever. As of last week, rapeseed meal stocks have increased by 17% to 86,600 tonnes. Plus, China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could amount to 27 mln tonnes, weighing on meals prices. These factors above have depressed rapeseed meal to edge lower. However, crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchange, which discourages crushers from making later buying of rapeseed cargoes. Besides, many crushing mills are idled by a shortfall in soybeans in April. Moreover, the demand from aquaculture is poised to recover with the weather warming up, underpinning rapeseed meal market. It is projected that rapeseed meal price will probably move with fluctuations in a short term. Buyers can stay on the sideline and wait for the moment.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 170,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. Meanwhile, Peruvian production ministry may delay the announcement of new fishing quota and catch starting time until late April, as the country will have the president election on April 11, which will lead to changes in Cabinet. Therefore, domestic traders are unwilling to sell at low prices. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 19,060 tonnes, Tianjin 1,820 tonnes, Shanghai 56,735 tonnes, Huangpu 67,960 tonnes, Fuzhou 19,260 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1100 tonnes and 4,305 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial increase of 50 CNY/tonne today. Farmers will likely feed more fingerlings with the warmer weather and higher price of aquatic products, thereby the demand from aquaculture is expected to gradually pick up. Thus, oil mills have strong intention to prop up prices, boosting cottonseed meal price. But meals futures retreat after opening low on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal declines by 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Besides, farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks due to declining hog prices affected by a resurgence of African swine fever in China. And cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid due to a lack of demand support, which is bearish on its price. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will potentially fluctuate at a narrow range.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.56)