Today (Apr 16), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures further rose on Thursday on a strong demand forecast, and meal futures open high and rise on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 20-40 CNY to 3,300-3,430 CNY/tonne, in weaker trade. (Tianjin 3410-3430, Shandong 3350-3360, Jiangsu 3300-3400, Guangdong 3330-3350, and Guangxi 3370-3380.)

Crush margins are at still at loss, and soybean crush remains not huge in spite of a rise, so soybean meal stocks have been falling. The demand in aquaculture industry is improving under warm weather, and feed production has risen by 30% on year. Millers have stronger sentiment to hike prices under improving soybean meal shipments. These are supporting meal prices. However, China is forecast to receive 27.6 mln tonnes of soybeans at ports from April to June, as Brazil is marketing and loading soybeans at a brisk pace. China’s soybean crush will continue rising in the next two week, while domestic producers dare not to largely replenish hog stocks due to the African swine fever, which are also curbing rises in meal price. Overall, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to keep its strength in fluctuation before huge soybean cargoes arriving at ports, and buyers are suggested to keep appropriate stocks and remain cautious in chasing after higher price.

Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Thursday. Rapeseed meal futures extend the rally after opening high on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered 20-40 CNY/tonne higher at 2,720-2,800 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, in tepid trade. Crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchange. Besides, many farmers will probably feed more fingerlings with the weather warming up. In this case, the demand from aquaculture may gradually pick up, which leads oil plants to lift price. Soybean meal stays strong, boosting rapeseed meal to rebound. But farmers are reluctant to replenish pig herd due to continuous pullbacks in hog prices amid the concerns over African swine fever. Additionally, there are more cargoes arriving at ports as Brazilian farmers are marketing their soybeans, so China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could bump up to 27.60 mln tonnes. This will still curb the upside of meals prices. It is expected that rapeseed meal price is likely to fluctuate at the high level. Buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips, but should remain cautious in chasing price up.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks get near to 180,000 tonnes at ports with new cargo arrivals, while the feed demand for fishmeal is limited due to a slow recovery in aquaculture and the influence of the African swine fever; hence, port traders are under growing pressure. Besides, market sources said Peruvian fishing quotas in the new season could be neutral or bullish, which is also affecting the sales sentiment in domestic market. Domestic traders are mostly waiting for the release of the quotas and conclude transactions on negotiated prices.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 19,670 tonnes, Tianjin 2,000 tonnes, Shanghai 61,295 tonnes, Huangpu 71,860 tonnes, Fuzhou 19,930 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,220 tonnes and 4,415 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Fish catches in southern Peru: As of Apr 14 (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2021 total 119,958 tonnes, taking up 29.33% of the total quota of 409,000 tonnes and with the fishing average at around 2,181 tonnes per day and 289,042 tonnes remaining available. The catch period spans from March 10 to June 30 (The trial catches started from Feb 19).

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable today. U.S. soybean futures further rose on Thursday on expected brisk demand. Meals futures stage gains after high opens on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal increases by 20-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Farmers will likely feed more fingerlings due to the warmer weather and higher price in aquatic products, thereby seeing a gradual recovery in demand from aquaculture. Thus, oil mills have strong intention to prop up meals prices, giving a boost to their market. But China’s soybean arrivals at ports will climb up in follow-up days as Brazilian farmers are marketing their soybean. Besides, farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks amidst the African swine fever in China, which limits price rises of meals products. Underpinned by a consecutive rebound in soybean meal, short-term cottonseed meal price will potentially keep unchanged with some rises.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.53)