Today (Apr 21), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:

Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued soaring to nearly a seven-year high, bolstered by tightening U.S. soybean supplies and active speculative buying. But meal futures are just fractionally higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today on the arbitrage under strong oils performance. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-30 CNY to 3,370-3,480 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin 3480, Shandong 3400-3420, Jiangsu 3370-3480, Guangdong 3400-3430, and Guangxi 3440.)

Crush margins are at still at loss, and soybean crushers in Rizhao, Shandong Province, may be in downtime for 7-10 days from April 24^th as steam supply will be affected by the maintenance of power plants. Domestic soybean meal stocks have fallen notably. In addition, aquaculture sector is entering into the peak season, and feed production has risen by 30% on year. Besides, downstream buyers are also stocking up in batch for the 5-day Labour Day holidays. Hence, soybean meal market is under better trade and quicker shipments, and some millers are limiting the delivery. Millers now have stronger sentiment to hike price, which will bolster meal market. However, domestic feed manufacturers have adjusted their formula due to excessively high corn prices and applied wheat and paddy rice to replace corn, so high-protein wheat will likely reduce soybean meal use. And China’s Ministry of Agriculture have formulated and released a technical plan for replacing the amount of corn and soybean meal in feed, as a bid to safeguard the safety of feed and grain supply. And domestic investors are again taking the arbitrage due to sharp rises in oils futures. These are weighing on meal price. Overall, short-term soybean meal market may fluctuate to strengthen.

Rapeseed meal: Spot markets of soybean and vegetable oil stand firm amidst declining global supply. U.S. soybean futures surged on Tuesday and hit an over-six-year peak. Rapeseed meal futures post further gains on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered 10-50 CNY/tonne higher at 2,820-2,900 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, in tepid trade. China has bought at least two cargoes of rapeseed from Ukraine for the first time due to tight supply of Canadian rapeseed. And crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on China’s domestic exchanges. Besides, many farmers will feed more fingerlings with the weather warming up, seeing a recovery in aquaculture. In this case, oil plants tend to prop up price, which boosts rapeseed meal price. However, China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could bump up to 27.60 mln tonnes with a quicker pace in Brazilian soybean shipment. Furthermore, several crushing mills are forced to halt the operation on account of overhang in rapeseed meal and thereby urge deliveries, weighing on meals prices. Accordingly, rapeseed meal price is unlikely to rise too excessive and may keep strengthening with fluctuations in the near term.

Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Feed consumption on fishmeal remains limited as it is difficult to achieve a recovery in aquaculture demand overnight and due to the African swine fever. Meanwhile, fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and port stocks have been getting near to a high level of 190,000 tonnes, so that port traders are under growing pressure. Besides, Peru’s Ministry of Production is said to release the fishing quotas for centre-north regions on April 22, so Chinese traders are mostly waiting for the release of the quotas and conclude transactions on negotiated prices.

Stocks at ports: Dalian 20,030 tonnes, Tianjin 2,050 tonnes, Shanghai 65,255 tonnes, Huangpu 75,010 tonnes, Fuzhou 20,300 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,220 tonnes and 4,455 tonnes at other ports.

FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.

Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial increase of 10-100 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures keep rising on concerns over weather conditions during the soybean planting season. Meals futures edge up on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal fluctuates by 10-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Farmers will likely feed more fingerlings due to the warmer weather and higher price in aquatic products, thereby seeing a gradual recovery in demand from aquaculture. With a distinct improvement in soybean meal trading and delivery, soyoil mills are more willing to lift price, which boosts meals prices. But operation rates among crushing mills will pick up over the next two weeks as Brazilian soybean marketing is in full swing. Also, it still takes time to see a total recovering in soybean meal demand. This will limit price rises of meals products. Underpinned by a surge in US soybean, short-term cottonseed meal price is projected to fluctuate at the high level.

(USD $1=CNY ¥6.50)