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China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 16, 2021)

2021-04-26 www.cofeed.com

I. National stocks

 

China’s edible palm oil stocks in China continue to fall due to a reduction in palm oil cargoes arriving this week. In the week ending Apr 23, edible palm oil stocks in China total 395,400 tonnes at nationwide ports, down 6.03% from 420,800 tonnes last week; down 133,000 tonnes or 25.71% from 528,400 tonnes in the previous month; down 44,000 tonnes or 10.01% from 439,400 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil stockpiles were 753,000 tonnes in 2019, 693,000 tonnes in 2018 and 592,200 tonnes in 2017. On an average from 2016-2020, palm oil stocks reached 574,600 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 131,900 tonnes, a decline of 4,200 tonnes or 3.09% versus 136,100 tonnes in the previous week.

 

Region
/Port

Edible Palm Oil Stocks0'000 tonne

Industrial Palm Oil Stocks

W16

W15

Change

M-O-M

Y-O-Y

W16

W15

Change

Tianjin Port

5.45

5.85

-0.4

-12.10%

-21.01%

2.4

2.4

0

Hebei

0.9

1.15

-0.25

164.71%

-38.78%

0.02

0.05

-0.03

Shandong Port

1.17

1.37

-0.2

40.96%

30.00%

2.01

2.02

-0.01

East China

13.4

12.45

0.95

-30.93%

2.68%

5.3

5.6

-0.3

Guangdong

13.75

16.98

-3.23

-37.36%

-22.88%

3.16

3.39

-0.23

Guangxi

2.67

1.88

0.79

3.89%

-7.61%

0.3

0.15

0.15

Fujian

2.2

2.4

-0.2

41.94%

144.44%

0

0

0

Total

39.54

42.08

-2.54

-25.17%

-10.01%

13.19

13.61

-0.42

 

 

II. Goods Arrivals

 

China’s palm oil imports in April are forecast to be 550,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes), up 70,000 tonnes from the prior estimate, according to Cofeed’s latest statistics. In May, China is projected to bring in 580,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 430,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes), unchanged. And in June, palm oil imports are expected to be 520,000-550,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 370,000-400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes).

 

III. Margins and Shipments

 

Date

Sailing Schedule

CNF
USD/tonne

Duty Paid
(CNY/tonne)

DCE
(CNY/tonne)

Import Margin

4/19/2021

Jul, 2021

960

7508

7080

-428

Aug, 2021

930

7275

7080

-195

Sep, 2021

905

7082

7080

-2

Oct-dec,2021

880

6889

6816

-73

4/20/2021

Jun,2021

1015

7897

7226

-671

Jul, 2021

967.5

7531

7226

-305

Aug, 2021

930

7242

7226

-16

Sep, 2021

910

7088

7226

138

Oct-dec,2021

885

6895

6936

41

4/21/2021

Jun,2021

1050

8172

7432

-740

Jul, 2021

997.5

7767

7432

-335

Aug, 2021

970

7555

7432

-123

Sep, 2021

945

7363

7432

69

Oct-dec,2021

910

7093

7112

19

4/22/2021

Jun,2021

1085

8442

7520

-922

Jul, 2021

1037.5

8075

7520

-555

Aug, 2021

1000

7786

7520

-266

Sep, 2021

970

7555

7520

-35

Oct,2021

950

7401

7146

-255

NOV,2021

940

7324

7146

-178

dec,2021

930

7247

7146

-101

4/23/2021

Jun,2021

1100

8553

7652

-901

Jul, 2021

1050

8168

7652

-516

Aug, 2021

1015

7898

7652

-246

Sep, 2021

980

7629

7652

23

Oct,2021

960

7475

7286

-189