Today is 03/27/2023

Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/28/2021


Today (Apr 28), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures retreated to decline sharply on Tuesday on technical selling as well as profit-taking ahead of the month end, and continue the downtrend on board today. Meal futures are drag down to decline widely on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 40-70 CNY at 3,420-3,560 CNY/tonne, attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3510, Shandong 3430-3460, Jiangsu 3420-3560, Guangdong 3430-3510, and Guangxi 3500-3520.)


Soybean vessels from South America are arriving at domestic ports, and domestic soybean crush also returns to a normal level of 1.80 mln tonnes weekly. Moreover, domestic hog producers dare not replenish huge stocks due to a continued decline in hog price and the African swine fever, and the demand for soybean meal will be affected as feed manufacturers take wheat as an alternative for corn. Soybean meal stocks have started to rise marginally in coastal China, which are bearish to soybean meal price. However, crush margins for imported soybeans on Dalian are at heavy loss due to high U.S. soybean price. And aquaculture sector is entering into the peak season, and mid-and-downstream buyers are still stocking up for the 5-day Labour Day holidays; hence, millers are making delivery at a brisker pace. The cost factor is a dominant under tight U.S. old soybean stocks and uncertain planting weather, so soybean meal prices will have limited downside space in the short term. The overall soybean meal market will fluctuate to keep the strength before the supply pressures occurs.


Rapeseed meal: CBOT soybean futures closed down on Tuesday and continue plunging today, with July contract falling from the 1,500 cents level. Meals futures widely retreat on China’s exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,830-2,880 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decline of 20-40 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Farmers are afraid to replenish hog stocks due to sharply lower hog prices and lingering African swine fever. Moreover, soybean crush volume is persistently rebounding with more boatloads arriving at ports successively. These are bearish on meals prices. However, crush margins for rapeseed futures have been in substantial losses on domestic exchange, which cause crushers to be reluctant to buy cargoes in later period. Besides, crushers tend to raise price with aquaculture being in a full swing, which may limit the downside of meal products. It is projected that rapeseed meal market will likely track futures to fluctuation in the short run. Buyers can take a wait-and-see attitude.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a partial rise in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,000 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY. Fishmeal export offers keep firm in Peru as local manufacturers have presold over half of their products. And domestic traders also keep prices firm under better shipments as downstream buyers are making replenishment for the Labour Day holidays. These are bearish to domestic fishmeal market. However, fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and port stocks have built up to nearly 200,000 tonnes. And feed consumption on fishmeal remains limited due to a slow recovery in aquaculture demand and the African swine fever. These are weighing on domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady with a slight rise in the near term.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 20,020 tonnes, Tianjin 2,090 tonnes, Shanghai 64,955 tonnes, Huangpu 81,820 tonnes, Fuzhou 20,790 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,380 tonnes and 4,315 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steady at 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,630 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Fish catches in centre-northern Peru: As of Apr 25 (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2021 total 41,017 tonnes, taking up 1.63% of the total quota of 2.509 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 21,000 tonnes per day and 2467983 tonnes remaining available.


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial fluctuation of 50 CNY/tonne today. Aquaculture starts entering into a peak season. And downstream buyers have yet to end the stockpiling for the forthcoming Labour Day holiday. In this case, soybean meal trading and delivery have improved recently. Besides, U.S. soybean remains high, and crush margins for imported soybean are at substantial losses on DCE, bolstering meals prices. However, soybean futures stopped the rally and sharply fell on CBOT on technical sell-off and profit-taking by the end of this month. Meals futures are also dragged down, with a wide decline. Spot soybean meal is down 40-70 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Furthermore, farmers are afraid to replenish hog stocks amid declining hog prices and lingering African swine fever. This has affected the demand for soybean meal, and also been bearish on meals prices. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price will not drop too much and mainly fluctuate to stay strong.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.49)