Today is 04/13/2024

Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/13/2021


Today (Apr 13), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Monday, led lower by the soyoil’s decline to its lowest in nearly six weeks on bearish data about palm oil inventory. Meal futures open low and drop on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 10-30 CNY to 3,250-3,370 CNY/tonne, in weaker trade. (Tianjin 3360-3370, Shandong 3260-3280, Jiangsu 3250-3320, Guangdong 3270-3300, and Guangxi 3310.)


Hog producers in China are inactive in replenishing stocks on concerns over the African swine fever and weakness in hog price, and China’s soybean arrivals will also be huge, which are bearish to meal price. But crush margins for imported soybeans suffer sustained loss on Dalian. Soybean crush fell further to a low level of 1.35 mln tonnes last week, while soybean meal market was in better trade, so soybean meal stocks also reduced by 6% to 720,000 tonnes. In addition, domestic farmers may increase fish seedlings on profitable fish price and under warming weather, so the demand in aquaculture sector will likely be improving. Millers are now supporting soybean meal prices, which is limiting the decline in price. Overall, soybean meal prices may fluctuate to adjust in the short term, and buyers can wait or take hand-to-mouth buying.


Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Monday. Rapeseed meal futures take a fall after opening low on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,710-2,780 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decline of 40-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. With the marketing season for soybeans in South America coming, China’s soybean arrivals at ports in April-June could bump up to 27 mln tonnes. Moreover, farmers are reluctant to replenish pig herd amid the concerns over African swine fever, weighing on rapeseed meal price. However, crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchange, which discourages crushers from making more purchases of cargoes. Besides, many farmers will probably feed more fingerlings with the warmer weather and higher prices in aquatic products. In this case, the demand from aquaculture may gradually pick up, which bolsters rapeseed meal market. In a hybrid of a bull and a bear, rapeseed meal price is expected to move with fluctuations in a short term. Buyers can make modest replenishment upon low and stable prices.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 170,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. Meanwhile, Peruvian production ministry may delay the announcement of new fishing quota and catch starting time until late April. Therefore, domestic traders are unwilling to sell at low prices. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 19,440 tonnes, Tianjin 2,090 tonnes, Shanghai 58,135 tonnes, Huangpu 68,890 tonnes, Fuzhou 19,280 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,180 tonnes and 4,425 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Fish catches in southern Peru: As of Apr 11 (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2021 total 113511 tonnes, taking up 27.75% of the total quota of 409,000 tonnes and with the fishing average at around 2183 tonnes per day and 295,489 tonnes remaining available. The catch date spans from March 10 to June 30.


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial increase of 50-70 CNY/tonne today. Farmers will likely feed more fingerlings with the warmer weather and higher price in aquatic products, thereby the demand from aquaculture is expected to gradually pick up. Thus, oil mills have strong intention to prop up prices, boosting cottonseed meal price. But the bearish data about palm oil inventory caused U.S. soyoil futures to collapse to a nearly six-week-low, and then soybean futures fell on CBOT overnight. Meals futures also retreat after opening low on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal declines by 10-30 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Besides, farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks due to declining hog prices affected by a resurgence of African swine fever in China. And it is unlikely that cottonseed meal price will fall significantly due to a lack of support from demand. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will potentially fluctuate at a narrow range.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.55)