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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/14/2021


Today (Apr 14), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose on Tuesday on bargain buying by investment funds and as China’s March soybean imports surged 82% on year to 7.77 mln tonnes, in addition that the U.S. dollar hit a fresh three-week low. Meal futures edge down on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today on the arbitrage due to strong oils performance. Spot soybean meal prices fluctuate by 10-20 CNY to 3240-3360 CNY/tonne, in weaker trade. (Tianjin 3350-3360, Shandong 3270-3290, Jiangsu 3240-3300, Guangdong 3260-3280, and Guangxi 3290.)


Hog producers in China are inactive in replenishing stocks on concerns over the African swine fever and weakness in hog price, and China’s soybean arrivals will also be huge, which are weighing on meal price. But crush margins for imported soybeans suffer sustained loss on Dalian. Soybean crush fell further to a low level of 1.35 mln tonnes last week, while soybean meal market was in better trade, so soybean meal stocks also reduced by 6% to 720,000 tonnes. In addition, the demand in aquaculture sector will likely be improving under warming weather. Millers are now supporting soybean meal prices. Overall, soybean meal prices may fluctuate at a narrow range to adjust in the short term.


Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed higher on Tuesday. Oils stay strong, triggering profit-taking. Rapeseed meal futures take further declines on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered 30-50 CNY/tonne lower at 2,670-2,740 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, in tepid trade. Farmers are reluctant to replenish pig herd amid the concerns over African swine fever and pullbacks in hog prices. There will be more soybean cargoes arriving at ports in later period. And some oil plants urge traders to take deliveries as they are forced to halt operation due to surplus rapeseed meal. These factors have together depressed meals prices. However, crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchange, which discourages crushers from making more purchases of cargoes. Besides, many farmers will probably feed more fingerlings with the warmer weather and higher prices in aquatic products. In this case, the demand from aquaculture may gradually pick up, which may limit the downside of meals market. It is expected that rapeseed meal price may mainly move with fluctuations in a short term. Buyers can make modest replenishment upon low and stable prices.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 180,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments in northern ports. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. Meanwhile, Peruvian production ministry may delay the announcement of new fishing quota and catch starting time until late April. Therefore, domestic traders have limited sentiment to sell at low prices. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 19,700 tonnes, Tianjin 2,060 tonnes, Shanghai 59,115 tonnes, Huangpu 69,630 tonnes, Fuzhou 19,400 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,160 tonnes and 4,625 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Fish catches in southern Peru: As of Apr 12 (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2021 total 115,686 tonnes, taking up 28.29% of the total quota of 409,000 tonnes and with the fishing average at around 2,183 tonnes per day and 293,314 tonnes remaining available. The catch date spans from March 10 to June 30.


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable today. Farmers will likely feed more fingerlings with the warmer weather and higher price in aquatic products, thereby the demand from aquaculture is expected to gradually pick up. Thus, oil mills have strong intention to prop up meals prices, giving a boost to their market. U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Tuesday. But oils stay strong, triggering profit-taking. Meals futures take marginal declines on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal fluctuates by 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Besides, farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks due to declining hog prices affected by a resurgence of African swine fever in China. And it is unlikely that cottonseed meal price will fall significantly due to a lack of support from demand. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will potentially fluctuate at a narrow range.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.54)