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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/19/2021


Today (Apr 19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures extended gains last Friday on intense competition for spring planting acreage between soybean and corn and as the cold, dry weather in the U.S. Midwest might be adverse to the start of the planting, couple with a weaker U.S. dollar. Meal futures are moderately higher on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 10-40 CNY to 3,340-3,450 CNY/tonne, and the overall trade remains tepid with some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3440-3450, Shandong 3370-3390, Jiangsu 3340-3410, Guangdong 3340-3360, and Guangxi 3370-3380.)


Crush margins are at still at loss, and domestic soybean crush remains not huge in spite of a rise. In addition, soybean crushers in Rizhao, Shandong Province, may be in downtime for 7-10 days from April 24th as steam supply will be affected by the maintenance of power plants. Moreover, domestic soybean meal stocks have fallen notably. And the demand from aquaculture sector begins increasing under warmer weather, and feed production has risen by 30% on year. Domestic millers have stronger sentiment to hike prices under improving soybean meal shipments. These are supporting meal prices. However, Brazil is marketing soybeans at a brisk pace. And Chinese crushers will continue picking up operation rates in the coming two weeks, and it will also take some time for a recovery in the demand for soybean meal; hence, buyers are cautious in chasing after higher prices, which is curbing the rise in meal price. Overall, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to keep its strength in fluctuation, and buyers are suggested to keep appropriate stocks and remain cautious in chasing after higher price. 


Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Friday as soybean price was needed to be higher to attract farmers to plant more soybeans and US dollars went weak. Meals futures post modest gains on China’s domestic exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered 20-40 CNY/tonne higher at 2,750-2,820 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, in tepid trade. Crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchange. Besides, many farmers will probably feed more fingerlings with the weather warming up. In this case, the demand from aquaculture may gradually pick up, which leads oil plants to lift price. However, there are more cargoes arriving at ports as Brazilian farmers are marketing their soybeans, so China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could bump up to 27 mln tonnes. Plus, farmers are reluctant to replenish pig herd due to continuous pullbacks in hog prices amid the concerns over African swine fever. As of last week, rapeseed meal inventories have risen by 2.2% to 88,500 tonnes, which limits the upside for meals prices. It is expected that rapeseed meal price is likely to fluctuate at the high level.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Feed consumption on fishmeal remains limited as it is difficult to achieve a recovery in aquaculture demand overnight and due to the African swine fever. Meanwhile, fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and port stocks have been getting near to a high level of 190,000 tonnes, so that port traders are under growing pressure. Besides, market sources said Peruvian fishing quotas in the new season could be neutral or bullish, which is also affecting the sales sentiment in domestic market. Domestic traders are mostly waiting for the release of the quotas and conclude transactions on negotiated prices.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 19,860 tonnes, Tianjin 2,010 tonnes, Shanghai 63,045 tonnes, Huangpu 72,900 tonnes, Fuzhou 19,970 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,260 tonnes and 4,425 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Fish catches in southern Peru: As of Apr 15 (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2021 total 122,553 tonnes, taking up 29.96% of the total quota of 409,000 tonnes and with the fishing average at around 2,188 tonnes per day and 286,447 tonnes remaining available. The catch period spans from March 10 to June 30 (The trial catches started from Feb 19).


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial fluctuation of 20-50 CNY/tonne today. Meals futures modestly go up on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal increases by 10-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Farmers will likely feed more fingerlings due to the warmer weather and higher price in aquatic products, thereby seeing a gradual recovery in demand from aquaculture. With a distinct improvement in soybean meal trading, soyoil mills are more willing to lift price, which sends soybean meal to continually rebound. But operation rates among crushing mills will pick up over the next two weeks as Brazilian soybean marketing is in full swing. Also, it still takes time to see a total recovering in soybean meal demand. This will limit price rises of meals products. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal price is projected to fluctuate at the high level.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.52)