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China Soybean Weekly Report--as of Apr 16, 2021

2021-04-20 www.cofeed.com

I. Soybean

 

Price

 

Domestic soybean: A majority of soybean farmers show more interest in selling soybeans as they need to cash out to purchase material for spring planting, and some traders also have stronger sentiment to liquidate stocks. And as imported soybean prices have been fractionally lower at ports recently, bean-product manufacturers have turned to source imported soybeans to save cost so that their domestic soybean stocks are being consumed at a slower pace. Moreover, downstream protein enterprises are cautious and taking hand-to-mouth buying, and small-sized companies and workshops are also slow in purchases due to smaller margins. The overall slack demand is now adding bearish sentiment to domestic soybean market. However, domestic farmers will tend to maximize corn acreage this year due to profitable margins, and especially as the country said it will implement the policy of increasing corn and stabilizing soybean planting this year in its central rural work conference. Overall, domestic soybean prices may fluctuate in the short run, and participants can keep an eye on arrivals of non-GM soybean arrivals at domestic ports and relevant policies.

 

Imported soybean: China may bring in 27 mln tonnes of soybeans from April to June as Brazil is marketing and exporting soybeans at a brisker pace. And downstream buyers are inactive in purchases under declining price movements, so the demand for imported soybeans is not strong at present and port shipments remain tepid. These are negative to imported soybean market in China. However, spring planting is now intense in the U.S. as traders said soybean prices need to rise compared to corn to entice U.S. farmers to plant more acres, and the cold snap in the U.S. Midwest may cause a delay in soybean planting. U.S. soybean prices are thus fluctuating at high levels and lending support to imported soybean market in China. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term imported soybean market in China is predicted to fluctuate in the short run, and participants can keep an eye on imported soybean arrivals and demand in China.

 

China's Soybean Weekly PriceCNY/Tonne

Region

Grade

This week

Last week

Variation

Northeast China

Heilongjiang

Domestic, GB Grade 3

5660

5700

-40

Inner Mongolia

Domestic, GB Grade 3

5620

5600

20

Heilongjiang

Imported, Russia

N/A

N/A

 

East China

Jiangsu

Domestic soybean

7300

7440

-140

Shandong

Imported, Argentina

N/A

N/A

 

GM, PNW

N/A

N/A

 

GM, U.S. GULF

4890-4960

4920-5050

30-90

North China

Tianjin

Non-GM, Ethiopia

N/A

N/A

 

Non-GM, Ukraine

5900

5900

0

Non-GM, Canada

6020

6020

0

GM, PNW

N/A

N/A

 

GM, U.S. GULF

N/A

N/A

 

National average

Domestic soybean

5660

5700

-40

Imported soybean

4910

4920

-10

 

 

 

说明: C:\Users\ADMINI~1\AppData\Local\Temp\1618882697(1).jpg

Crush: Operation rates pick up as expected this week (Apr 10-16) owing to more imported soybean stocks put into mills and easing soybean meal inventory pressure. Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,617,000 tonnes (meal 1,277,430 tonnes and oil 307,230 tonnes), up 261,800 tonnes or 19.31% from 1,355,200 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 45.60%, up 7.38% from 38.22% in the previous week. Soybean crush is expected to increase to 1.70 mln tonnes and 1.77 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks, respectively.

 

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 6.89 mln tonnes in April at current utilization rate, against the 6.8288 mln tonnes in the previous month and 6.7296 mln tonnes a year earlier.

 

In the crop year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush totals 49,119,334 tonnes, up 4,722,234 tonnes or 10.64% from 44,397,100 tonnes a year earlier.

 

In the calendar year of 2021 (from Jan. 1st, 2021), China’s soybean crush amounts to 23,628,396 tonnes, up 1,264,939 tonnes or 5.66% from 22,363,457 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2020.

 

说明: 1618795757(1)

 

Inventory: Soybean stocks are little changed with a small decline this week as the small volume put into mill stock offsets a slight rise in soybean crush. In the week as of Apr 16, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 3,730,900 tonnes, down 1,300 tonnes by 0.03% from 3,732,200 tonnes last week and up by 42.37% from 2,620,400 tonnes from a year earlier.   

说明: 1618816517(1)

 

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean import is predicted to be 117 cargoes or 7.597 mln tonnes for April, 10.7 mln tonnes for May, 9.3 mln tonnes for June, 8.1 mln tonnes for July, and 7.9 mln tonnes for August. The data will be updated every week based on buying and shipment.

 

II. Soybean Meal

 

Price: Domestic soybean meal prices first decline and later rise this week (Apr 12-16). As of this Friday, prices settle at 3,300-3,430 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, a rise of 10-40 CNY/tonne. 

 

China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price  (CNY/Tonne)

Region

This week

Last week

Variation

Northeast China

Jilin

3,540

3,520

20

North China

Tianjin

3,420

3,410

10

Hebei

3,410

3,400

10

Central China

Hubei

3,420

3,380

40

Henan

3,440

3,370

70

East China

Shandong

3,360

3,300

60

Jiangsu

3,310

3,300

10

Zhejiang

3,320

3,310

10

Shanghai

3,320

3,320

0

Fujian

3,360

3,410

-50

Anhui

3,390

3,360

30

South China

Guangdong

3,330

3,340

-10

Guangxi

3,370

3,370

0

National average

3,357

3,348

-9

 

 

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks continue a decline this week as soybean crush remains at a low level of 1.61 mln tonnes on week and soybean meal has been in better shipments for two weeks. In the week as of Apr 16, Chinas soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 648,800 tonnes, down 76,700 tonnes by 10.57% from 725,500 tonnes last week and also up 306.26% from 159,700 tonnes from a year earlier.

 

说明: 1618816487(1)

 

III. Soybean Oil

 

Price: Domestic soybean oil prices first fluctuate and later rise this week (Apr 12-16). Grade I soybean oil price is 9230-9380 CNY/tonne, mostly up 20-80 CNY from last Friday. The overall nationwide Grade I soyoil price index is 9,300 CNY/tonne, a weekly rise of 30 CNY or 0.32% from 9,270 CNY/tonne last week.

 

China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne)

Region

Grade

This week

Last week

Variation

South China

Guangzhou

GB Grade 1

9,280

9210-9230

50-70

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

 

North China

Qinhuangdao, Hebei

GB Grade 1

9,400

N/A

 

GB Grade 3

9,300

N/A

 

Tianjin

GB Grade 1

9,280

9,190

90

GB Grade 3

N/A

9,210

 

East China

Rizhao, Shandong

GB Grade 1

9,280

9,200

80

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

 

Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu

GB Grade 1

9,380

9,360

20

GB Grade 3

N/A

N/A

 

National average

GB Grade 1

9,270

9,270

0

GB Grade 3

9,320

9,220

100

 

 

Inventory: Soybean oil stocks continue falling this week as an increase in oil shipments offsets a rise in soybean crush. In the week ending Apr 16, Chinas soybean oil commercial stocks total 573,200 tonnes, down by 3.3%% from 592,500 tonnes last week, down 21.6% from 731,000 tonnes month on month, and down 36.6% from 904,500 tonnes year on year. And the five-year (2016-2020) average at the same period is 1,165,500 tonnes. 

 

说明: 1618816443(1)