Today is 04/13/2024

Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/20/2021


Today (Apr 20), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continue rising on Monday as growing U.S. domestic demand for soybeans under healthy crush profits led to extremely tight spot supplies and cold weather in the U.S. Midwest could slow down planting progress, coupled with a weaker U.S. dollar. Meal futures open high and rise on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 30-80 CNY to 3,380-3,480 CNY/tonne. Prices with smaller gains attract some purchases, and stay in thin trade with bigger gains. (Tianjin 3470-3480, Shandong 3410-3430, Jiangsu 3380-3460, Guangdong 3400-3420, and Guangxi 3420-3430.)


Crush margins are at still at loss, and domestic soybean crush remains not huge in spite of a rise. In addition, soybean crushers in Rizhao, Shandong Province, may be in downtime for 7-10 days from April 24th as steam supply will be affected by the maintenance of power plants. Domestic soybean meal stocks have fallen notably. In addition, aquaculture sector is entering into the peak season, and feed production has risen by 30% on year. Besides, downstream buyers are also stocking up in batch for the 5-day Labour Day holidays. Hence, soybean meal market is under better trade and quicker shipments, and some millers are limiting the delivery. Millers now have stronger sentiment to hike price, which will bolster meal market. Before huge soybean cargoes arriving at port and operation rates sharply pick up to a relatively high level, short-term soybean meal market may fluctuate to strengthen.


Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Monday. Meals futures post further gains after opening high on China’s domestic exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered 10-40 CNY/tonne higher at 2,790-2,850 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, in tepid trade. Crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on China’s domestic exchanges amid the rising concerns over weather condition during U.S. soybean planting. Besides, many farmers will probably feed more fingerlings with the weather warming up. In this case, the demand from aquaculture may gradually pick up, which leads oil plants to lift price. However, there will be more cargoes arriving at ports afterwards as Brazilian soybean marketing is in full swing, so China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could bump up to 27.60 mln tonnes. Plus, farmers are reluctant to replenish pig herd due to the resurgence of African swine fever in some regions. Furthermore, some crushing mills are forced to halt the operation on account of overhang in rapeseed meal and thereby urge deliveries, weighing on meals prices. Accordingly, the upside for short-term rapeseed meal market is limited.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Feed consumption on fishmeal remains limited as it is difficult to achieve a recovery in aquaculture demand overnight and due to the African swine fever. Meanwhile, fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and port stocks have been getting near to a high level of 190,000 tonnes, so that port traders are under growing pressure. Besides, market sources said Peruvian fishing quotas in the new season could be neutral or bullish, which is also affecting the sales sentiment in domestic market. Domestic traders are mostly waiting for the release of the quotas and conclude transactions on negotiated prices.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 19,830 tonnes, Tianjin 2,080 tonnes, Shanghai 64,095 tonnes, Huangpu 74,070 tonnes, Fuzhou 20,180 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,240 tonnes and 4,545 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Fish catches in southern Peru: As of Apr 18 (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2021 total 127,776 tonnes, taking up 31.24% of the total quota of 409,000 tonnes and with the fishing average at around 2,166 tonnes per day and 281,224 tonnes remaining available. The catch period spans from March 10 to June 30 (The trial catches started from Feb 19).


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial increase of 50 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures further rose on concerns over weather conditions during the planting season. Meals futures go up after opening high and broaden gains on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal represents an advance of 30-80 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Farmers will likely feed more fingerlings due to the warmer weather and higher price in aquatic products, thereby seeing a gradual recovery in demand from aquaculture. With a distinct improvement in soybean meal trading and delivery, soyoil mills are more willing to lift price, which boosts meals prices. But operation rates among crushing mills will pick up over the next two weeks as Brazilian soybean marketing is in full swing. Also, it still takes time to see a total recovering in soybean meal demand. This will limit price rises of meals products. Thus, short-term cottonseed meal price is projected to fluctuate at the high level.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.51)