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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/23/2021


Today (Apr 23), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued sharp gains on Thursday as concerns about tightening global supplies triggered short-covering and fund-driven buying and the market was also worried that the cold snap in the U.S. could damage the new crop prospect. Meal futures follow to rise but post much smaller gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 10-40 CNY to 3,430-3,560 CNY/tonne. The trade remains tepid after the rally today, but there are some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3560, Shandong 3480-3490, Jiangsu 3430-3530, Guangdong 3450-3500, and Guangxi 3520.)


Crush margins are at still at loss, and soybean crushers in Rizhao, Shandong Province, may be in downtime for 7-10 days from April 24th as steam supply will be affected by the maintenance of power plants. Meanwhile, aquaculture sector is entering into the peak season, and feed production has risen by 30% on year. Besides, downstream buyers are also stocking up the 5-day Labour Day holidays. Hence, soybean meal market is under better trade and quicker shipments, and some millers are limiting the delivery under a notable reduction in meal inventory, which is supporting meal market. However, Chinese crushers have ramped up soybean crush to nearly 1.80 mln tonnes this week and will to over 1.80 mln tonnes next week, and May soybean arrivals at ports will exceed 10 mln tonnes. And there is technical over-buying in the wake of a sharp rally in U.S. soybeans. Therefore, it is still necessary to avoid risks of fluctuation in the uptrend.


Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures further jumped on Thursday as worries about global tight supply triggered short covering and large buying. Rapeseed meal futures stay below the previous close on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today, despite some rises. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,840-2,910 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a fluctuation of 10-20 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.


Rapeseed volume purchased from June to August by crushing mills will likely lower than expectations due to persistent losses in crush margins. Besides, aquaculture is entering into a peak season, and aquatic feed production in March got a sharp increase of 29% compared to the previous month. In this case, oil plants tend to prop up price, which boosts rapeseed meal price. However, China’s soybean arrivals in May could advance to 10.70 mln tonnes, and weekly soybean crush volume has been back to a normal level of around 1.80 mln tonnes in recent two weeks. Furthermore, some crushing mills are forced to halt the operation on account of overhang in rapeseed meal and thereby urge deliveries, weighing on meals prices. Accordingly, rapeseed meal price is likely to keep strengthening with fluctuations in the near term.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Feed consumption on fishmeal remains limited as it is difficult to achieve a recovery in aquaculture demand overnight and due to the African swine fever. Meanwhile, fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and port stocks have been getting near to a high level of 190,000 tonnes. These are weighing on fishmeal market. However, Peru’s fishing quota for the first season in centre-north oceans in 2021 is fixed at 2.509 mln tonnes, which is 491,000 tonnes below a forecast of 3 mln tonnes, so domestic traders naturally grow sentiment to prop up prices. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steadily go upward in the near term.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 20,330 tonnes, Tianjin 2,090 tonnes, Shanghai 65,775 tonnes, Huangpu 77,560 tonnes, Fuzhou 20,660 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,280 tonnes and 4,395 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial increase of 20-150 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures continued a surge on Thursday. Meals futures also follow the gains on Dalian Commodity Exchange today, but increase far behind US soybean. Spot soybean meal increases by 10-40 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Aquaculture starts being in a full swing. And downstream buyers are successively stocking up with the forthcoming Labour Day holiday. In this case, soybean meal trading and delivery have improved recently, leading to a distinct decline in soybean meal stocks. As a result, some crushing mills limit delivery, which boosts meals prices to further go up. However, operation rates among domestic oil plants is picking up persistently, and the crush volume is closing to 1.8 mln tonnes this week and will break the level next week. Likewise, China’s soybean arrivals in May could surpass 10 mln tonnes. Furthermore, investors take profits from buying oil and selling meal as oils stage wild gains. These have together impacted price rises of meal products. In short, underpinned by a surge in US soybeans, short-term cottonseed meal price is projected to fluctuate to keep strong.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.49)