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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/26/2021



Today (Apr 26), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures firmed last Friday on tight supplies. Meal futures also climb but are narrowing down gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 20-40 CNY at 3,470-3,580 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3580, Shandong 3500-3520, Jiangsu 3470-3540, Guangdong 3480-3530, and Guangxi 3520-3530.)


Crush margins for imported soybeans on Dalian board are negative as a sharp rise in U.S. soybean prices lifts the import cost. And soybean crushers in Rizhao, Shandong Province, may be in downtime for 7-10 days as steam supply will be affected by the maintenance of power plants. Meanwhile, aquaculture sector is entering into the peak season, and downstream buyers are also stocking up for the 5-day Labour Day holidays; hence, soybean meal market is under better trade and quicker shipments. These are supporting meal price. However, China may bring in more than 10 mln tonnes of soybeans in May as South American producers are marketing their new crops. And domestic soybean crush will pick up to a normal level of 1.80 mln tonnes weekly, and the demand for soybean meal will be affected as feed manufacturers take wheat as an alternative for corn; thus, soybean meal stocks saw a slight rise in coastal regions last week. In the context of frequent speculation on weather in the U.S. due to tight soybean supplies and also dominated by the cost side, soybean meal prices may fluctuate to keep the strength. This round of rally in domestic soybean meal market is mainly fueled by the sharp gains in U.S. soybean futures, but both Dalian meal and Chicago soybean futures are narrowing down gains today, so buyers who have made replenishment last week can stay on the sidelines temporarily.


Rapeseed meal: CBOT soybean futures closed up on Friday and further rise today. But rapeseed meal futures fluctuate on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,840-2,910 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a fluctuation of 10-20 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been in substantial losses on domestic exchanges, which cause crushers to be reluctant to buy cargoes in later period. Besides, farmers will likely feed more fingerlings with the warmer weather and higher price in aquatic products. In this case, the demand from aquaculture could gradually recover. As of last week, rapeseed meal stockpiles have fallen by 8% to 81,200 tonnes among coastal mills, giving a boost to rapeseed meal price. However, soybean arrivals in May will likely bump up to 10.70 mln tonnes with more boatloads arriving at ports afterwards. And soybean crush has increased by 10% to 1.78 mln tonnes last week. This may curb price rises of meal products. Rapeseed meal futures pare gains after a sharp increase in morning session, and market participants had better keep a lookout at the risk of fluctuation in a short term.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices climb fractionally in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400 CNY/tonne, up 200-300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,500 CNY/tonne, up 100-200 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,000 CNY/tonne, up 100-300 CNY; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne, up 300 CNY. Peruvian fishing quota is lower than the industry forecast, and local manufacturers have presold more than half of their products; hence, Chinese traders also continue raising prices marginally today. However, fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and port stocks have built up to nearly 200,000 tonnes. And feed consumption on fishmeal remains limited due to a slow recovery in aquaculture demand and the African swine fever. These may curbing the rise in fishmeal price. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady with a slight rise in the near term.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 21,020 tonnes, Tianjin 2,050 tonnes, Shanghai 66,035 tonnes, Huangpu 78,480 tonnes, Fuzhou 20,730 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,240 tonnes and 4,335 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steady at 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,630 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial increase of 30-100 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures further rose on Friday on tight supply of US soybean. Meal futures also go up on Dalian Commodity Exchange today but continually narrow their gains. Spot soybean meal is offered 20-40 CNY/tonne higher in coastal regions. Aquaculture starts entering into a peak season. And downstream buyers are successively stocking up with the forthcoming Labour Day holiday. In this case, soybean meal trading and delivery have improved recently, which gives a support to meals prices. However, China’s soybean arrivals in May could surpass 10 mln tonnes as South American soybean marketing is in a full swing. And soybean crush volume will afterwards rebound to a normal level of 1.80 mln tonnes each week, weighing on meals prices. Dalian meals futures gradually pare gains today, which may limit the upside of cottonseed meal market. Buyers should pay attention to it.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.49)