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Daily Review on Meal Market in China--4/27/2021


Today (Apr 27), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:


Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures extended sharp rises on tight domestic supplies and as Argentina was mulling on hiking export tax. Meal futures also continue rising on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go up 10-30 CNY at 3,490-3,600 CNY/tonne, attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3570, Shandong 3500-3530, Jiangsu 3490-3600, Guangdong 3470-3530, and Guangxi 3550-3560.)


The loss in crush margins for imported soybeans on Dalian board is expanding. And aquaculture sector is entering into the peak season, and mid-and-downstream buyers are also stocking up for the 5-day Labour Day holidays; hence, millers are making delivery at a brisker pace. This bolsters soybean meal prices to keep rising. However, soybean vessels from South America are arriving at domestic ports, and domestic soybean crush also returns to a normal level of 1.80 mln tonnes weekly. Moreover, domestic hog producers dare not replenish huge stocks due to a continued decline in hog price and the African swine fever, and the demand for soybean meal will be affected as feed manufacturers take wheat as an alternative for corn. Soybean meal stocks have started to rise marginally in coastal China, which will also curb the rise in soybean meal price. The cost factor is a dominant under tight U.S. soybean stocks and frequent weather speculations, so soybean meal prices will likely keep the strength.


Rapeseed meal: CBOT soybean futures soared on Monday. Meals futures extend gains after opening high on China’s exchanges today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,870-2,910 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a rise of 10-30 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been in substantial losses on domestic exchanges, which cause crushers to be reluctant to buy cargoes in later period. Besides, rapeseed meal trading has improved with aquaculture being in a full swing. As of last week, rapeseed meal stockpiles have fallen by 8% to 81,200 tonnes among coastal mills, giving a boost to rapeseed meal price. However, soybean arrivals in May will likely bump up to 10.70 mln tonnes with more boatloads arriving at ports afterwards. And soybean crush will get back to a normal level of 1.80 mln tonnes this week. Furthermore, farmers are afraid to replenish hog stocks due to the lingering African swine fever, curbing prices rises of meal products. It is projected that rapeseed meal market will likely fluctuate to keep strong in the short run.


Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,200-10,400 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,500 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,000 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,500 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal export offers keep firm in Peru as local manufacturers have presold over half of their products. And domestic traders also keep prices firm under better shipments as downstream buyers are making replenishment for the Labour Day holidays. These are bearish to domestic fishmeal market. However, fresh fishmeal cargoes are arriving at domestic ports and port stocks have built up to nearly 200,000 tonnes. And feed consumption on fishmeal remains limited due to a slow recovery in aquaculture demand and the African swine fever. These are weighing on domestic fishmeal market. Overall, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady with a slight rise in the near term.


Stocks at ports: Dalian 20,120 tonnes, Tianjin 2,010 tonnes, Shanghai 65,655 tonnes, Huangpu 80,900 tonnes, Fuzhou 20,860 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,200 tonnes and 4,365 tonnes at other ports.


FOB quotes from foreign markets today: May/June shipments are quoted steady at 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,630 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.


Fish catches in centre-northern Peru: As of Apr 25 (local time), fish catches in the first season of 2021 total 41,017 tonnes, taking up 1.63% of the total quota of 2.509 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 21,000 tonnes per day and 2467983 tonnes remaining available.


Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable with a partial fluctuation of 30-50 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures surged on Monday on tightening supply of US soybeans and as Argentina plans to raise export taxes. Meals futures also further rise on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is offered 10-30 CNY/tonne higher in coastal regions. Aquaculture starts entering into a peak season. And downstream buyers are successively stocking up with the forthcoming Labour Day holiday. In this case, soybean meal trading and delivery have improved recently, which gives a support to meals prices. However, the weekly soybean crush volume will rebound to a normal level of 1.80 mln tonnes with a mass of South American soybeans arriving at domestic ports. Furthermore, farmers are afraid to replenish hog stocks amid declining hog prices and lingering African swine fever. These have impacted the price rises of meal products. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal price will mainly fluctuate to stay strong.


(USD $1=CNY ¥6.49)